How now brown cow? (Updated)

(Senator Francis "Chiz" Escudero announces decision to leave National People's Coalition in a press conference held at Club Filipino in Greenhills, San Juan City on October 28, 2009. Photo from Chiz web site)

FOR the entire day yesterday, my friends on Facebook were all a-twitter, analyzing, dissecting, and even dissing Sen. Chiz Escudero's announcement of his resignation from the Nationalist People's Coalition. It obviously caught most of his partymates off-guard. Even NPC vice-presidential candidate Loren Legarda seemed mightily pissed at the turn of events, considering how she has been lusting after the presidency. Too bad she had already declared herself as a VP candidate.

Even Rep. Mark Cojuangco, son of NPC founder and businessman Eduardo "Danding" Cojuangco, sounded testy saying that the senator never told him that he was leaving the party, and that he was only hearing about this from the reporter who was asking for his reaction. He sounded incredulous as if the reporter was telling him something preposterous.

While Inquirer's headline on its website this morning is Escudero junks NPC, Cojuangco, it has been apparent for quite sometime that it was Cojuangco who actually junked the presidential wanna-be. Rumors have been going around in the last few months that the Boss, as Cojuangco is called, was not too enthusiastic about financing Escudero's presidential bid.

(Eduardo "Danding" Cojuangco, Jr.)

Cojuangco's rumored P200-M allocation to Escudero is what it appears to be - token support. Just so it won't be said that the Boss didn't fund his party's own presidential candidate. But if you look at the situation closely, Cojuangco really doesn't need to bet on Escudero or perhaps any other presidential candidate for that matter. He already has cornered the coco levy funds. He got back San Miguel Corp., which is now diversifying and expanding its reach beyond its normal food and beverage concerns. So what other favors does he need to curry from any presidential candidate? (The other rumor is that Cojuangco BFF and SMC president Ramon Ang had convinced the NPC chair to just fund their congressional candidates. Besides, its cheaper.)

For another, Escudero has shown poorly in survey after survey. As a presidential candidate, the highest rating he got compared to his possible rivals was 23%, as per the Social Weather Stations polls, and this was in Feb. 2009. His rating then slipped to 15% in May, rose to 20% in June, before dropping back to 15% in Sept. when Sen. Noynoy Aquino already entered the picture. So Escudero never got a rating that was convincing enough for potential financiers to back him.

Although we hear that beer and tobacco magnate Lucio Tan is ponying up for Escudero's presidency, we also know that the former is a segurista and will likely contribute to everyone who is running for president. It's called political hedging. But with Tan's businesses struggling with financial burdens (e.g. PAL for instance reported a $31-M loss in Aug. and is cutting jobs), the Chinoy tycoon won't be able to give Escudero enough funds to mount a decent and serious presidential campaign.

When the group of political campaign strategist par excellence Lito Banayo joined the Chizwiz campaign, everyone felt, including myself, that the group would energize the Chizwiz campaign. But by Oct. 23, Saturday, I heard that Malou Tiquia, Escudero's senior campaign strategist had "resigned". To those who don't know, prior to her joining Escudero's campaign, Tiquia was with Sen. Mar Roxas. She had been one of those behind the brilliant Mr. Palengke strategy. Now, there could only be one reason why Tiquia would disengage from Escudero, my source noted. That meant no campaign funds were forthcoming. (One of Escudero's handlers told me Tuesday, however, that Tiquia didn't resign; her contract just wasn't renewed. Accdg. to him, "maraming syang kaaway sa loob.")

Of course, prior to this, former senator Serge Osmeña had resigned as Escudero's campaign manager (w/c is why it was necessary to bring Banayo in), and announced he was rejoining the Liberal Party to support Sen. Aquino's presidential bid. Advertising guru Yolly Ong, who was said to have ties to the Aquinos as well, also left.

(Beer and tobacco magnate Lucio Tan, a personal friend of Escudero's father, Rep. Sonny Escudero.)

Now with all due respect to Escudero's current handlers whom I really respect and his own father who I am especially fond of, there's a simple reason why Escudero has been rating poorly in the surveys. It's not from lack of media exposure. In fact, I think he's all over the place. And I'd like to dispel Escudero's assumptions that his connection to Danding's iffy politics is an issue for voters. It is really not. But he does rub people off the wrong way. Especially the ones older than 50 years. Even my 81-year-old mother describes him as "hambog". Apparently, he is not someone who brings out the mother instinct in women.

Among those in his age group, the 40-somethings w/c I belong to, he comes off as a brash, arrogant, know-it-all, who is long on his answers, but actually short on substance. He speaks in a monotone, unblinking, as if he's got all his answers memorized, w/c he regurgitates as the need arises. His lines are cleverly-written and well-rehearsed. (e.g.“Whoever is planning to run for president of the country should have no allegiance to any party—NPC, LP, PMP, Lakas or whatever. The party that anyone is aspiring to run under should be none other than the Philippines, and his party mates should be all Filipinos.") They are ready-made soundbites for the public and media's consumption, but devoid of any sincerity. There is no heart, no soul, just lots of empty rhetoric.

Fortunately for Escudero, he has the youth (18-30 somethings) eating out of his hand. But are these youth supporters that numerous for him to be able to mount a presidential bid without funds? Remember, if one is to gun for a national elective post, he has to have poll watchers in almost every major precint in the entire Philippines! Even the announcement of support by the Magdalo group was met with skepticism. Just how many are the Magdalos and their supporters anyway?

And for all his posturing, Escudero is certainly no Barack Obama who was able to mount a new kind of politics that cut across all age groups, sexes, and ethnicities. (Yet, even Obama had major financial backers like Oprah Winfrey, a whole slew of celebrities, and major businessmen.) So I'm not quite sure where Escudero is headed. For all the youthful idealism that he projects, I don't think he is naive to believe that he will be able to run for president without some massive capital infusion. Unlike Obama's one-dollar campaign, Escudero can no longer mount a piso-piso campaign from the public bec. Aquino's handlers have already beaten him to the punch.

If at all, Escudero will probably run for VP, with who as president, I don't really know. There are three presidentiables still without a running mate, i.e. Gilbert Teodoro, Manny Villar, and Dick Gordon. And for all his self-righteous anti-corruption schtick, some people think Escudero may still run with Gibo or Villar as president. (Gordon's chances are iffy, at best, and lack of funds is also a problem.) I believe it will all boil down to campaign financing and who will be able to give it to him. Although VP Noli de Castro was said to have been persuaded by Villar to be his runningmate, we are hearing that certain ahem, promises made to Kabayan have yet to be fulfilled, w/c is why there is still no announcement from the latter. So the Villar window is still open for Escudero to swing through. As Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita says, "in politics, anything is possible."

Or maybe Escudero will give the Philippines a break and as Sen. Mar Roxas has already said and done, put "country above self." What is direly needed by this country is for the Opposition to unite against the PaLaKa/administration's immense political machinery. Escudero, if he is really sincere in wanting to serve the people's interests, should set aside his childhood ambition to run as president for the meantime, or even as VP. (He has lagged in the polls as VP candidate as well.) He's young, he still has a long road ahead of him. He can still be of service to the public as a senator. Besides, he cannot deny the growing force in popularity of the Aquino-Roxas tandem. Politics is a lot about incredible timing. And for Escudero, unfortunately, this isn't the right time for his run.

To close, I am, aghast that Escudero, in his interview last night with Che-Che Lazaro's Profiles on ABS-CBN had the gall to say that Cojuangco never lifted a finger to help him in his past candidacies ("walang naitulong" was his exact words). This not only smacks of ungratefulness, but is a bald-faced lie. As one reporter commented to me, "what about the frequent use of SMC's Learjet? That's gotta count for something." So there.

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FOR the whys and wherefores of Escudero, read Lito Banayo's column here. It is his last entry, he says, because of his having joined the Escudero campaign. So yes, Chizwiz is still going to run, for what position, we don't know. (Yadayadayada.) Too bad. Many readers, including myself, will certainly miss Mr. Banayo's astute political observations in his column. Good luck with the campaign po.

Hot flashes! (3rd update)

1. Just received a text from highly-respected Malaya columnist and political commentator Lito Banayo that Chizwiz's coming out party will be on Monday, Oct. 12, 5:30 pm at the Club Filipino. Ay kawawa naman si Loren! Foiled again ang dreams of superstardom.

(Update 10/10/09: I just received an unconfirmed tip that the announcement of Chizwiz re: his run for the presidency has been moved to Oct. 17, Saturday. I'll give you an update soon as I can.)

Chizwiz's run for the presidency can only mean Tito Danding has come through with the financial support. Naku pano naman si Gibo? Chizwiz's candidacy is also said to be supported by taipan Lucio Tan, a good friend of Chizwiz's dad, Sonny Escudero, one of the better agriculture secretaries this country ever had. (Btw, accdg to Mr. Banayo, also onboard the Chizwiz team is former Star reporter and PTA administrator Nixon Kua, and ex-journalist Raymond Burgos. Well, all I can say is, Chizwiz is super lucky to have these 3 gentlemen on his team. Very formidable political/media operators. Kaya makinig ka sa kanila lagi, Chizwiz!)

(Update 10/11/09:The scheduled announcement of Chizwiz's presidential run at Club Filipino tom. Monday, is definitely postponed, accdg. to his people. There is no date when this will actually happen, as a source in his camp says they want to avoid anything "political" in the meantime that most of Luzon is still suffering from Ondoy and Pepeng's onslaught. So I'm not quite sure what Chizwiz has up his sleeve tom. at the Senate where he is supposed to hold a press conference at 1 pm.

Just my two cents though, it makes no sense to postpone the inevitable. Whether Chizwiz announces his presidential candidacy tom., or next week, or even in November really makes no difference bec. the impact from Pepeng and Ondoy will be lasting. There is no guarantee that the evacuees will be relocated by December or even by the May 2010 elections. Besides rehabilitation will last for years, long after a new president will probably have finished his term of office. Let's just get all these annoucements over and done with so the real work can actually continue.)

2. Two days after Chizwiz's coming out party will be Erap Estrada's and Jobama Binay's. My source has yet to tell me where the venue of the announcement will be. Hopefully it will not be in Club Filipino again, no offense to Club management. Kaso gasgas na kasi yan. And we all know that Club will always and forever be associated w/ Tita Cory.

But I feel a bit sad for Jobama for hitching his cart to Erap's star. Jobama could have done better. I mean, he could've run for senator instead of getting entangled w/ someone like Erap. He was such a huge success in whipping Makati into shape, so why destroy his reputation by teaming up w/ well, an ex-con? Pardon or no pardon, Erap was still found guilty of plunder. Sayang. Well, accdg. to my source, 'no choice' daw.

(Update 10/10/09: According to this story in the Inquirer, Mr. Estrada is announcing his lineup on Oct. 21 instead.)

3. P300 million! That is the amount that is said to have been agreed on between a Presidentiable and his Vice Presidential running mate. Plus all campaign expenses paid ob chors! So even if VP-to-be loses in terms of votes in 2010, does he care? Of all the VP candidates, he will still, in the end, be the real winner. Retirement hasn't looked this great ey? Congratulations in advance to VP-to-be. (Oy, pa-share naman jan!) Da who?!

4. Local/foreign investment managers and bankers got a taste of how life will be if this Presidentiable wins in 2010. He was a no-show at oh-such-an-important gathering of Asia-Pacific delegates this morning and instead, sent his not-too-brilliant relation to speak on his behalf.

Ob chors, Brainiac spoke of the 2010 elections instead of the topic assigned to Mr. Presidentiable, which is the state of the industry from which he hugely profited. Needless to say, most of the conference participants were aghast bec. they aren't Filipino voters anyway so why was Brainiac sounding as if he was campaigning for Mr. Presidentiable? Ngek! Da who?!?!

(UPDATE) According to my sources, Mr. Presidentiable really has this habit of confirming appointments and events, and then suddenly just not showing up. One pundit calls him 'iwas-pusoy', bec. he has a lot of things to hide. Well, maybe Filipino voters will be a no-show for him as well. Hah.

5. Btw, this same Mr. Presidentiable was seen in Shangri-La Edsa Plaza Hotel only a few weeks ago, going out of his way to shake the hands of everyone he came across, much to their surprise. In contrast, we just heard that the Noynoy-Mar tandem is currently in Bacolod City, and no, the two didn't have to go out of their way to press flesh like Mr. Presidentiable above. Instead, it was the crowds which eagerly shook their hands and kissed them. "Dinumog" is how it was described to me. Just like the old Cory days, I'm told. Well, yahoo!


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MEANWHILE, this is the third shout out to Quezon City Mayor Sonny Belmonte and Vice Mayor Herbert Bautista. QC residents are upset that to this day, their trash hasn't been picked up by garbage collectors yet. Much of the basura are debris from Typhoon Ondoy w/c passed Metro Manila's way last Sept. 26.

What are these two chief executives of QC doing? Twiddling their thumbs while waiting for another typhoon that will no doubt, spread this uncollected debris around and probably cause even larger floods? Not only that, this is a huge health scare! Can you imagine how many diseases are spread bec. of wet, uncollected garbage? This is incompetence at its highest!

Ey Bistek! You're running for QC mayor next year right? Well if you wanna be sure and win our votes, you better solve this garbage problem like yesterday! (Gee, wasn't life so much easier during Kaluskos Musmos?)

(The Sonny and Bistek show. Photo from Inquirer.net)
(UPDATE 7:15 pm, Oct. 9) The trash in our village is finally being shoveled into dump trucks. But the activity is being done at a time when everyone is rushing home. One street was totally closed off, blocked by a truck, causing a kilometric traffic jam along Visayas Ave. I really don't understand why the trash pickup wasn't done this morning, after the rush hour? As usual, Quezon City Hall officials are the masters of competence and efficiency!

Merry Christmas people!

WELL, it is the first of June and almost half of the year is over. You betcha Christmas will sneak up on us faster than you can sing 'Grandmagotrunoverbyareindeer!'

More importantly though, it's amazing that most of us are still on our feet. We still have our jobs, the love of family and friends, have a roof over our heads and can still eat three basic meals a day. Many of us are still relatively healthy, dear readers. Forget all the petty annoyances and insignificant idiots who sometimes make life hell for us. Let's just be grateful for being able to wake up each morning and getting up on our feet. And getting on w/ our lives. Woo-hoo!

(Another reason to rejoice: It's the first day of the new schoolyear so the kids in the village are outta here! Yay! It's so quiet I could cry, haha!)

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Just read this on the news: The runup to the presidential elections in 2010 sure looks tight if you read the latest survey of Pulse Asia.

Just look at this table of survey results:

(Screenshot of Pulse Asia survey results from ABS-CBN News)

Most remarkable of all is MAR Roxas, formerly a kulelat, is now among the top 5 candidates, after gaining 5 points since the Feb. 2009 survey. Would it be the Korina factor you think? Ooh, if this keeps up, I see a wedding by December. Joke!

Seriously, I think I'll take Korina over Nikki Teodoro anytime. The Defense Secretary, btw, is hardly rating. Then again, it's less than 11 months to presidential elections. Anything can still happen between now and May 11, 2008.

To be frank though, even if Gilbert Teodoro does do an FVR (i.e. form his own party, as his wife has threatened, ugh) if PaLaKa, the administration party, doesn't nominate him as its presidential standard bearer, I think he lacks the political savvy, charm, and connections of the old man. You may recall that FVR had been around the political universe even during Marcos' time w/c allowed him to tap those old powerful networks when he ran in 1992.

Teodoro has hardly the financial muscle and TV face time like his 2010 rivals, who've been hogging the headlines and airtime far longer than him. If only he can get his Tito Danding to drop Chiz Escudero, who really is much too young (not to mention, overmemorized) to be leading this country, then Teodoro has a larger chance to make the rest of the country know him a bit better.

(FVR and GMA Photo from Supreme Master Ching.)

Other than that, I wish the opposition can just get their act together and agree on one common candidate. It's the only way to defeat the PaLaKa/administration candidate, whoever it may be. It's time these guys think about the country for once, instead of furthering their own petty interests. Yun na!

* * * *
AY, hindi pa pala. How true is that FVR and the presidentita already kissed and made up? And over glasses of cognac? Click here. Well, should we have expected something more respectable from our 'elder statesman'? Ugh.

Chiz plays coy

I hate to be so crabby on a Monday, but Chiz Escudero's drama managed to irritate me this morning.

"Given the lack of age requirement, I cannot categorically state that I am running. There is a proper time for such declaration. While others may have openly declared their intention to run, I respect their right to do so and wish them the best," he said.
"So when am I declaring? You can ask me again after my birthday on October 10, 2009," Escudero added. (Read the rest here.)

But two days ago, he said this:

"I am running because we need a leader that can provide solutions to the unemployment problem, the clamor of teachers for higher salaries and [I am] a man that could address the issue on hunger and poverty," he told reporters here. (Read the rest here.)

Hah! I knew there was something not right about Chiz. This kid is just all talk. Glib, glib, glib.

Btw, why does every Tom, Dick, and Harry for President thinks he's the next Barack Obama? First, Jojo Binay, now Chiz Escudero? Who next? Loren Legarda, too? Gads.

Enough! MAR Roxas 2010 pa rin!

Yay for Obama! MAR and CHIZ in 2010

WHEW! It took the Democratic Party a long time to decide this, but you must admire the political process in the U.S., despite the lengthy number of caucauses, the process left very little room to doubt who was the best person for the position as presidential candidate of the party. (Compare that to here in the Philippines where anyone who wants to run for President, can run despite the lack of the right credentials, education, even intelligence. Basta marunong sumayaw, kumanta, at mag-joke, uubra na. Hay!

* * *
Anyhoo, I like Barack Obama. I think he is a refreshing change (that word again) from the string of presidential hopefuls who've arisen in the last few decades in the U.S. He has both street cred and Beltway cred. He represents everything that is possible in the U.S., that anyone can make it, no matter what race you belong to, as long as one works hard and gives it his/her best.

Sure Hillary Clinton is an accomplished woman too, but it was pretty obvious that she would do anything to get herself elected...even wish Obama dead. (Remember the faux pas on the RFK comparison?) She reminded me so much of the presidentita...so determined to become president just because.

W/c is what eventually turned off a lot of the superdelegates in the Democratic Party...they saw Hillary was willing to sacrifice party unity for the sake of herself. And now, she wants to be VP to Obama. Ang kapal talaga grabeh! It was her own ego that ruined it for her. Lolah, if it ain't your time, don't force the issue. Go back to the Senate where you belong!

While Obama isn't exactly the most perfect candidate ever, it is pretty obvious that he has the heart. He has the sincerity. He wants to run for President because he really thinks he can make a difference. Can Hillary say the same for herself?

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The November presidential elections in the U.S. is only five months away, and already signs are pointing to a stronger dollar. Even local economists are saying that if Democrats win, there is a chance that the U.S. economy will make a turnaround, and this can only impact on the sputtering world economy. Even here in the Philippines, we will see the effects of a Democrat win, in terms of more exports, and a depreciated peso which will help the families of OFWs.

But more than the economy, I think the U.S. elections will be another vote on the Iraq War. Americans want to get out of it. And they will trust someone who voted against going to war in the first place. So I predict an overwhelming Obama win agains GOP candidate Sen. John McCain. The U.S. needs to get its self-respect back.

The November elections will be the most widely anticipated new event of the year. And I'm keeping my eyes glued to CNN.

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(MAR and CHIZ, the team to beat in 2010)

Back in our neck of the woods, my favorite manghuhula is saying that so far, no one can hold up a candle to MAR Roxas in 2010. While he is a tough sell because of his de buena familia roots w/c the masa will have a difficult time to relate to, he will still win the presidency against say, Manny Villar, Loren Legarda, even Ping Lacson.

And while there are many people already jockeying for the position as MAR's VP – two of them being former Senator Joey Lina and also Sen. Loren Legarda –Aling Chona says the best VP for MAR is Chiz Escudero. According to her, Chiz will be able to make MAR accessible to the masses, because of his friendly personality, his fluency in Filipino, and his intelligence which does not turn off people, like some intellectuals do (including MAR).

Although it seems this team-up is an impossibility (MAR is from the Liberal Party, while Chiz is from the Nationalista Party/UNO), I trust the political old hands in both parties will see the wisdom in joining forces. It is time for the youth to take over the reins of political power in this country and show the disenfranchised among the voters that there is hope after Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, and traditional politics.

To Joey Lina, Aling Chona says, matulog ka nalang. To Loren, stay in the Senate. Ping, while he would make a good VP to MAR as well, will not want to consider this lower position at all...sayang!

As for the question on whether MAR and his ghelfren will get married...secret! I won't tell.

Btw, Aling Chona advises MAR to smile more often. It will make you look more friendly. Masyado kang serious noh? C'mon MAR show off those pearly whites!

* * *
Oh yeah, there is going to be a 2010 election, according to Aling Chona. That's the good news. The bad news is...the presidentita will stay in power 'til then. (Do I hear booing amongst you?)

It is just the presidentita's fate. She was meant to be the Chief Executive of this great land of ours (it doesn't matter whether she did it legitimately or not), and has the steely determination to remain in power. But she is tired as well. So the likelihood of the presidentita doing a Marcos or changing the Constitution to keep her in power after 2010, is dim. Pagod na ang lolah nyo, people.

Ang masasabi ko lang...AMEN!

(To the politicos who want to know their fate in 2010, Aling Chona is available for readings at Palmistry, 2nd Floor of the V-Mall (formerly Virra Mall), Greenhills Shopping Center.)