'Depression is coming'

(From the Washington Post via LB Now Ltd.)

THE global economy is still in for rougher times ahead as the underlying problems that caused the recession have been merely “papered over.” This was the assessment on Thursday of Louis Boulanger, CFA, founder and director of LB Now Ltd.

“The problems at the source of the crisis still exist. There’s been fiscal stimulus and there’s been a lot of monetary stimulus. The US Treasury added a lot of money in the system as well as the central bank [Federal Reserve]. (Click BusinessMirror for the rest.)

Begrudging his bedazzling

"The fact that Obama is exceptionally easy in his skin has made Hillary almost jump out of hers. She can’t turn on her own charm and wit because she can’t get beyond what she sees as the deep injustice of Obama not waiting his turn. Her sunshine-colored jackets on the trail hardly disguise the fact that she’s pea-green with envy."

(Clever. Click Maureen Dowd in today's NYT for the rest.)

I wish I was an American right now

NO, I'm not being unpatriotic.

I just thoroughly enjoyed this morning's Democratc Party presidential debate between Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton which was carried live on CNN and I couldn't help but wish we here in the Philippines would have the same kind of electoral process that would be able to weed out the weak candidates from the stronger ones.

It was very exciting to watch both the Democratic Party frontrunners discuss issues intelligently and present their ideas and would-be policies to the voters. (Both were very cordial to each other btw, as if they had already agreed earlier on that what was more important to convey was party unity.)

I think the most important issue raised during the debate was on the Iraq war...why the U.S. got into it in the first place, and how the next president will get the country out of that mess. It is a topic that is really close to the hearts of a lot of American voters because most have friends and family serving in the military assigned to Iraq.

Clinton: (responding to a question on her failure to vote for an amendment requiring Bush to report to Congress the result of U.N. inspections before going to war) "You know, I've said many times if I had known then what I know now, I never would have given President Bush the authority. It was a sincere vote based on my assessment at the time and what I believed he would do with the authority he was given."

Obama: "I think it is much easier for us to have the argument when we have a nominee who says, 'I always thought this was a bad idea — this was a bad strategy.' " (The full transcript of the debate at CNN.com)

It didn't matter to me who nailed the debate because both argued strongly on issues they had already earlier been identified with, but what really appealed to me was the fact that the Democrats now have the best candidates to choose from.

You can almost feel the electricity in the air. Talagang excited sila sa States! Everyone is so galvanized to register, organize, speak up, and vote. Even if it's just the primaries. I suppose it's because they feel the Bush administration just so fucked up its seven years in office that the voters want a change and choose wisely this time.

So honestly, nakakainggit sila. Kasi, as far as the present crop of would-be presidential candidates here in the country goes, we don't have an Obama or a Clinton that can inspire us. You know, the kind that will be able to push us out of our comfort zones to help ourselves and our country to get its act together? Someone who can seriously kick butt and get the government to work for the people. For example, how many hours do you have to stand in line to get your driver's license, SSS ID, your baptismal or birth certificate, or your passport? (Answer: Longer than the hours you have to line up at the U.S. Embassy to get a visa.)

But I think part of the reason we don't have any more seriously competent politicians to serve the interests of the people is because of the following:

First of all, our electoral process is just chaotic. Like there are just too many political parties, and its members are just switching sides all the time naman. Magulo!

Then, we have a Commission on Elections that lacks the right equipment and credibility among its people to actually conduct honest and clean elections.

Third, all our politicians are trapos. Even the young ones have already adopted the style of their elders. You scratch my back, I scratch your back. There's always a quid pro quo involved in any resolution or bill passed by Congress or the Senate. They close their eyes to lobby money changing hands, even if they themselves don't get their share.

Kawawa na masyado ang Pilipinas. People just want to leave and move to another country. Hindi na bale mag-maid, mag-yaya, magpahid ng pwet ng matatanda sa ibang bansa, basta lang malaki ang sweldo nila at pamilya nila makakain ng tatlong beses isang araw.

They feel there's no hope. And we need a President who may not have all the solutions to our country's problems a hundred percent, but at least give us back the hope that things are going to change for the better.

In the States, they need change. Here in the Philippines, we need hope.

Weekend reading (UPDATED)

GOOD reads today:

Caroline Kennedy endorses Barack Obama

"I have spent the past five years working in the New York City public schools and have three teenage children of my own. There is a generation coming of age that is hopeful, hard-working, innovative and imaginative. But too many of them are also hopeless, defeated and disengaged. As parents, we have a responsibility to help our children to believe in themselves and in their power to shape their future. Senator Obama is inspiring my children, my parents’ grandchildren, with that sense of possibility." (From NYT, Jan. 27, 2008)

How to prevent the U.S. and the global economy from sliding into recession? Spend, Asia!

"The tremendous rate of savings in East Asia is another reason Asia is in a better position to prevent global recession than anybody else. During the East Asian financial crisis of 1997, some currencies weakened dangerously. At the time, national governments lacked enough reserve foreign currency to counterbalance this devaluation. The lesson that East Asia took away from this experience was to maintain large enough reserves to prevent drastic currency fluctuations. As a result, Asian governments now accumulate foreign currency for reserve purposes at a rate far in excess of any other region." (From the Asian Sentinel, Jan. 25, 2008.)

Telling her own story, Michelle Obama finds her voice too

"You think of my parents who didn't go to college, who sent not one but two of us to Princeton, my brother and I," she told the 200 or so students that came to hear her speak. "And the one thing that is clear to me as I've traveled the country is the story of my father is the story of America, I don't care what color what folks are, I don't care if they grew up on a farm or in the inner city." (From TIME online, Jan. 24, 2008)

French Trader Is Remembered as Mr. Average

"André Tiran, the dean of the faculty at the University of Lyon, theorized that Mr. Kerviel’s training in risk control management might have given him some critical advantages in any financial scheming.

'It’s a little bit like becoming a thief with training in locksmithing,' Mr. Tiran said. 'If you’re good at being a locksmith, then to steal is easier.' " (From the NYT, Jan. 26, 2008)

GMA to survive Year of the Earth Rat

GOOD GRIEF! this is what Joseph Chau, feng shui (geomancer) consultant of the Mandarin Oriental answered me when I asked him if the presidentita would still remain in power this year. According to him, this is because the main gate of the Malacañang Palace faces the Southeast, which is the luckiest direction in the Year of the Earth Rat. "So if Malacañang is lucky, the master is lucky too," he said. Do I hear groaning out there? Ah well...

He did say though that there was a sickness star hovering above the Northwest where the Palace is located, so the presidentita should be careful about her health. Well we've seen her in and out of St. Luke's hospital quite a number of times last year, and I'm not counting her husband's near-death experience. There have been quite a number of rumors just what disease has been plaguing the scary resident by the Pasig River, especially since her primary care physician is a liver specialist.

(Joseph Chau, master geomancer and resident feng shui consultant of the Mandarin Oriental Manila, gives the press a lowdown on what's in store for us in the Year of the Earth Rat.)

Chau added that because of Malacañang's luck, he doesn't see any "major problems" for its chief resident this year. And he adds that the Philippines is lucky as well and has been on this prosperity path since 2004, which will last until 2009! But why don't we feel it Mr. Chau? It seems only the presidentita is lucky! Hay naku!

Anyhoo, the little one's critics may be comforted by the fact that Chau was the geomancer that predicted Joseph Estrada would remain in power. In fairview, the master geomancer did not have Erap's exact birthdate and birth time which would have given him a more accurate reading of the then Palace resident's (mis)fortune. In the same manner, this year's prediction for GMA is just based on a general reading of Malacañang after Chau looked at maps, and not of the presidentita herself.

* * * *

Other points raised by Chau in the brief chat I and a couple of other reporters had with him yesterday:

• Lucky zodiac signs are : the ox, tiger, dragon, monkey, and dog. Those who were born in the year of the Rat, Horse, Rabbit, Rooster, and the Goat will have a tough year.

• Good investment areas (stock market and business in general) : mining, entertainment (TV and movies), real estate, transportation, and logistics. He advises newspaper publishers/editors to play up entertainment stories on their front pages to ensure profitability.

• Businesses that will find the new year to be more challenging are garments, boutiques, and book stores. "There are just more competitors for them so they should work harder."

• Young men, especially those below the age of 50 should begin businesses in the Year of the Earth Rat.

• While he didn't directly answer my question of whether Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton would win the U.S. presidential elections in November, he said it will be a "cultural" decision for Americans. I take this to mean that Americans will have an easier time voting a white woman into office than a African-American male. (Btw, I noticed in the recent news stories by ANC, there were actually more Fil-Ams supporting Hillary than Obama. This is not a surprise as Pinoys have always identified themselves with WASPs, desperate to be like them especially in the color of their skin, that the gluthatione bottles are just flying off those drugstore shelves. Besides most Fil-Ams supported Bill Clinton as well when he first ran for office, even when he was considered a virtual newbie in the beltway.)

• The November elections would also spell relief for the U.S. and it's economy will pick up, helping strenghthen the greenback as well. That should be welcome news to a lot of our exporters and OFWs cringing at every day's uptick in the peso's value.

For a summary of Chau's predictions, click here